Global Wheat Trade Set to Contract as Production Forecast Edges Lower

Global wheat production prospects for 2026 have been revised slightly lower from the previous month, reflecting reduced expectations for Australia, where below-average rainfall is expected to limit both plantings and yields. According to the latest AMIS monthly report, this adjustment represents the only notable change to the global production outlook.

Wheat utilization for the 2026/27 season has also been trimmed from the previous forecast, mainly because of lower feed and other uses. Despite the revision, overall utilization is still expected to increase year on year, supported by steady growth in food consumption. Wheat trade during the 2026/27 marketing season (July/June) remains broadly unchanged from the June outlook but is still forecast to contract due to softer import demand in North Africa and the Near East. Meanwhile, global ending stocks in 2027 are expected to rise slightly from opening levels, as increases in Asia offset declines among major exporting countries.

Regional crop conditions

Winter wheat harvesting continues across the northern hemisphere, while sowing is nearing completion in the southern hemisphere under generally favourable conditions.

In the European Union, winter wheat remains in generally favourable condition, although dry soils in central Europe and heat waves in western Europe could reduce yield prospects. Turkey is reporting above-average yields as winter wheat harvesting progresses. Winter wheat also remains under favourable conditions in Ukraine away from the war front, while the Russian Federation continues to report favourable winter wheat conditions. Spring wheat sowing has been completed there, although the total sown area is smaller than last year.

Conditions remain favourable for both spring and winter wheat in Kazakhstan. In China, the winter wheat harvest is nearing completion while spring wheat continues to develop. In the United States, winter wheat harvesting is progressing with below-average yields due to drought in the central and southern Plains, although spring wheat conditions remain favourable. Canada is also reporting favourable conditions as spring wheat sowing concludes and winter wheat continues to develop.

Australia is completing sowing under mostly favourable conditions, although the total sown area is expected to decline noticeably compared with last year. In Argentina, sowing is progressing at a good pace, despite some delays in the southern agricultural belt caused by excess soil moisture.

Recent policy developments are also drawing attention. On 2 June, Turkey's Turkish Grain Board (TMO) announced procurement prices of TRY 16,500 (appr. USD 351) per tonne for both durum wheat and bread wheat for the current purchasing season. Additional government support covering base payments, planned production incentives and certified seed subsidies totals TRY 3,014 (appr. USD 64) per tonne. Grain sales by TMO are scheduled to begin on 1 October, with both grade 2 durum wheat and grade 2 bread wheat priced at TRY 18,500 (appr. USD 394) per tonne.

In Kazakhstan, the Interdepartmental Commission on Foreign Trade Policy has proposed a six-month ban on wheat imports by road, water and rail from both Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and non-EAEU origins. The draft measure, published on 16 June, remains under consideration and would not apply to rail deliveries destined for licensed elevators, poultry operations and flour mills.

International wheat prices moved lower during June. The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index declined by 5 percent from an earlier near two-year high as harvest pressure, a stronger US dollar and weaker energy markets outweighed intermittent crop concerns in parts of the northern hemisphere. Russian wheat prices eased alongside a weaker rouble and the approaching winter wheat harvest, while US export prices also declined as attention shifted to rapid harvest progress and favourable Black Sea production prospects.

Australian wheat values edged lower due to currency movements and timely rainfall despite El Niño risks and acreage shifts towards alternative crops. French wheat prices were broadly steady, supported by limited grower selling and exceptionally hot weather ahead of harvest, although competition from the Black Sea region and muted overseas demand continued to limit upward movement, according to the latest AMIS assessment.