Global Wheat Market Review: Record Output and Firm Trade Prospects

Image: AI

The global wheat outlook for 2025 continues to strengthen, with production forecasts revised upward to reach a new record high, according to the latest AMIS report. Improved final yields in Canada, the European Union, and the Russian Federation have driven this increase, reinforcing expectations for a strong global harvest. The outlook for Australia also remains positive, maintaining the overall bullish tone in global supply prospects.

While the production side shows notable optimism, utilization forecasts for the 2025/26 season have seen only marginal adjustments from previous estimates. AMIS notes that revisions mainly reflect refined expectations for feed and food use, suggesting that consumption patterns are largely stable despite the growing availability of wheat. Trade, however, is set to expand more significantly in 2025/26, fueled by robust demand in Asia and increased export capacities from Australia and the United States. These gains are expected to offset reduced shipments from Canada, ensuring that international wheat flows remain dynamic and responsive to regional shifts in production and demand.

Stocks, projected to close the 2025/26 season above opening levels, underscore the strong production performance in several major wheat-growing nations. AMIS highlights that inventories are likely to increase notably in Canada and the Russian Federation, both benefiting from strong harvests and favorable growing conditions in key producing regions. This trend signals a comfortable global supply outlook heading into the next marketing year, despite localized challenges in some areas.

Northern Hemisphere: Harvest Nears Completion, Winter Wheat Sowing Begins

In the northern hemisphere, the 2025 wheat season is entering a transitional phase as spring wheat harvesting wraps up and sowing of winter wheat begins. AMIS reports that conditions vary considerably between regions, shaped by contrasting weather patterns and soil moisture levels.

In the Russian Federation, the spring wheat harvest continues but is advancing more slowly than the historical average due to excessive rains in certain regions. Despite the delays, above-average yields are expected across parts of Volga, the Urals, and Siberia—key producing zones that have benefited from sufficient rainfall during the growing season. However, winter wheat sowing is taking place under mixed conditions. Moisture deficits in some areas are posing challenges, potentially influencing the early establishment of the next crop.

Ukraine faces a more difficult situation. According to AMIS, sowing is beginning under extremely dry conditions across major producing regions in the south and east. These dryness issues are expected to delay planting, with roughly half of the winter crop likely to be sown later than average. Such delays could impact crop establishment and yield potential, depending on the progression of rainfall in the coming weeks.

In Kazakhstan, spring wheat harvesting is underway but has been slowed by persistent rains. Despite these interruptions, progress continues gradually, and weather conditions will play a decisive role in determining the final quality and volume of output.

China’s wheat outlook remains stable. Harvesting of spring wheat is concluding under favorable conditions, ensuring that production levels remain strong. The consistent performance of China’s wheat sector continues to anchor regional supply stability in East Asia.

Across the United States, the picture is more varied. AMIS notes that the spring wheat harvest is finishing with contrasting results—above-average yields in the east but below-average outcomes in the Northern Plains. The variability reflects localized differences in rainfall and temperature during the growing period. Meanwhile, sowing of winter wheat is underway under generally favorable conditions across most regions, with the exception of the Pacific Northwest, where low soil moisture presents a challenge for early planting.

Canada’s harvest season has also shown mixed yet overall positive results. The spring wheat harvest is progressing with yields ranging from average to above average, supported by favorable end-of-season conditions. Sowing of winter wheat has begun, setting the stage for next year’s production. The combination of solid yields and strong harvest progress reinforces Canada’s position as one of the key contributors to the global production increase highlighted by AMIS.

Southern Hemisphere: Favourable Conditions Dominate

In the southern hemisphere, the wheat season remains broadly positive. AMIS reports that conditions are favorable across Australia and Argentina, two of the region’s most important producers.

In Australia, average to above-average yields are expected nationwide, supported by timely and sufficient rainfall throughout the growing period. The favorable weather pattern has boosted crop development, contributing to the optimistic production outlook. This strong performance is one of the main factors behind the upward revision in global output, according to AMIS.

Argentina also reports good growing conditions as the majority of the crop develops. Harvesting has already begun in the northern regions, and progress is expected to accelerate as the season advances. With no major weather disruptions reported, Argentina’s wheat crop is developing under stable conditions, adding to the generally positive sentiment surrounding the southern hemisphere’s production prospects.

Trade Outlook: Asia’s Demand Fuels Momentum

Global wheat trade in 2025/26 is projected to rise compared to the previous year, driven by strong demand from Asian countries. AMIS attributes the expected increase to higher export availabilities in key suppliers, particularly Australia and the United States. These gains are anticipated to compensate for reduced exports from Canada, where strong domestic inventories and regional logistical constraints may limit outbound shipments.

The expansion of trade underscores wheat’s continued central role in global food markets, particularly in Asia, where population growth and evolving consumption patterns sustain import demand. The balance between supply abundance and regional import needs is expected to keep global trade flows active throughout the 2025/26 marketing year.

Stocks Outlook: Rebuilding Inventories

Stocks are projected to rise by the end of the 2025/26 season, surpassing their opening levels. The increase will be most pronounced in major producing countries such as Canada and the Russian Federation, reflecting the impact of strong harvests and favorable yields. AMIS notes that these stock rebuilds contribute to a generally comfortable supply situation, offering a degree of stability amid uneven weather and production conditions elsewhere.

Higher inventories in key exporting nations may also help moderate price pressures, particularly if global demand remains steady rather than accelerating. The presence of robust carryover stocks into 2026 suggests that the global wheat market will enter the next season from a position of relative strength.

Global Crop Conditions: Monitoring Continues

According to the AMIS Crop Monitor, wheat conditions across both hemispheres are largely favorable, though regional disparities persist. In the northern hemisphere, as the harvest of spring wheat concludes, attention turns to the sowing of winter wheat—a critical stage that will shape the 2026 crop outlook. In the southern hemisphere, the ongoing development and harvest of wheat crops benefit from supportive weather, contributing to the overall global supply momentum.

AMIS also highlights related developments in other grains, noting that maize harvesting is ongoing in the northern hemisphere, while sowing has begun in Brazil for the spring-planted crop. These parallel dynamics underline the global synchronization of cropping cycles that collectively influence feed and grain markets.

Conclusion

Production is set to reach a new record, driven by improved yields in several major producing regions. Trade is projected to expand, reflecting both strong Asian demand and the recovery of export capacity in Australia and the United States. Stocks are expected to rise, ensuring a comfortable supply buffer into the next marketing year.

Yet, despite the overall optimism, AMIS cautions that regional variability—particularly dry conditions in parts of Ukraine and the U.S. Pacific Northwest—could still affect localized production and planting decisions. As the 2025/26 season progresses, the balance between these contrasting regional developments will determine how firmly the global wheat market sustains its current momentum.