Global Wheat Production Surges as Major Exporters Drive Supply Rebound

Credit: AI

The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report offers a cautiously optimistic outlook for the 2025/26 wheat season, pointing to rising global supplies, stronger trade flows and, for the first time in six years, an expected increase in worldwide ending stocks. The report, released this month, reflects shifting dynamics across major exporting nations and hints at more comfortable supply conditions ahead.

According to the WASDE, the outlook for U.S. wheat in 2025/26 has improved significantly, driven primarily by stronger-than-anticipated yields. Total production is raised by 58 million bushels, bringing output to 1.985 billion bushels, thanks to the record all-wheat yield confirmed in the September 30 Small Grains Summary.

Despite the bump in production, domestic use remains unchanged. However, the increase in supplies translates into higher ending stocks and slightly softer price expectations. The season-average farm price is trimmed by $0.10 per bushel, now projected at $5.00, as expanding global supplies weigh on market sentiment.

On the international front, the WASDE report paints a picture of strengthening wheat markets, with production set to rise across most of the major exporting countries. Global supplies for 2025/26 are expected to reach 1,090.3 million tons, up 11.7 million tons from last month. Key contributors to this increase include Kazakhstan, Argentina, the European Union, the United States, Australia, Russia, and Canada — a rare alignment of favorable production trends among leading players.

Consumption is also projected to grow, rising 4.3 million tons to 818.9 million, largely due to higher feed and residual use in Russia, Kazakhstan, and the EU. This signals renewed demand strength in regions where wheat is increasingly becoming a feed alternative amid fluctuating corn markets.

The WASDE notes a particularly active trade outlook, with world wheat exports expected to expand to 217.2 million tons, up 2.5 million tons. Stronger export projections for Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan more than compensate for a downward adjustment for Russia, traditionally the world’s dominant wheat exporter.

Perhaps the most striking mentioned development in the report is the forecast for global ending stocks. Projected at 271.4 million tons, the figure represents an increase of 7.4 million tons, marking what could be the first year-over-year rise in global wheat stocks since the 2019/20 season. After several years of tightening supplies, this signals a notable shift toward market stability.

The latest report suggests that 2025/26 may be a year of recovery and recalibration in global wheat fundamentals. While challenges remain — from geopolitical tensions to unpredictable weather patterns — the strengthened production outlook and easing stock pressure offer a more balanced picture for the year ahead.