Global Wheat Outlook Strengthens as Major Producers Post Record Harvests

The global wheat sector is closing the year with a significantly improved supply outlook, as new projections for the 2025/26 season highlight major production gains across key exporting countries. According to the latest December update, production in Canada, Argentina and the European Union has surpassed earlier expectations, collectively boosting global supply and reinforcing short-term market stability.

The USDA’s update notes that the U.S. domestic outlook remains unchanged this month. All supply and use categories for the country’s 2025/26 wheat season were kept steady, and while class-based revisions were made for feed use and exports, these adjustments did not alter total figures. Globally, however, the picture is far more dynamic, with rising output, stronger consumption, expanded trade flows and higher ending stocks shaping the market.

Record Harvests Push Global Supply Higher

World wheat supply has been lifted by 7.5 million tonnes from last month, reaching 1.0978 billion tonnes. The USDA attributes this increase largely to remarkable production gains in several leading exporters.

Canada is one of the season’s most notable success stories. The country’s wheat production has been raised by 3 million tonnes to 40 million tonnes—its highest level on record. Favorable weather patterns and strong yields across growing regions played an important role in this boost.

Argentina is also heading for a historic season, with production estimated at 24 million tonnes. Consistent rainfall and balanced temperatures throughout major agricultural zones, particularly around Buenos Aires, supported this exceptional performance.

In the European Union, updated government data has increased the bloc’s wheat output by 1.7 million tonnes to 144 million tonnes, signaling that yields across the continent outperformed initial forecasts. The positive revisions extend to Australia and Russia as well, now estimated at 37 million tonnes and 87.5 million tonnes respectively. As both countries play a central role in global wheat trade, their improved outlook further strengthens worldwide supply conditions.

Global wheat consumption continues to grow in tandem with rising output. This month, the USDA raised its world consumption forecast by 4.1 million tonnes to 823 million tonnes. Higher feed use and increased domestic demand in major producing nations are the primary drivers of this upward adjustment. The increase helps maintain market balance by absorbing part of the expanding supply, supporting a more stable pricing environment.

Global wheat trade for 2025/26 is now projected at 218.7 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes from last month. Stronger export capacity in Australia, Canada and Argentina fuels this increase.

However, regional downward revisions also feature in the update. Turkey’s export outlook has been reduced due to steady domestic consumption and shifts in its import–export balance. Ukraine’s export forecast has been lowered as well, influenced by production uncertainties and ongoing transportation challenges.

Ending Stocks Strengthen Global Supply Security

Ending stocks for the 2025/26 season are forecast to rise by 3.4 million tonnes, reaching 274.9 million tonnes. The USDA notes that most of this increase stems from the strong production performance in Canada, Argentina and Russia. Higher inventories significantly improve global supply security, offering a buffer against potential weather disruptions or unexpected production declines later in the season.

The latest global assessment presents an optimistic outlook for the wheat sector. Record harvests in leading exporters continue to reinforce supply, while rising consumption and expanding trade activity reflect healthy market fundamentals. At the same time, increasing stock levels add resilience to the global supply chain.

Although future price trends will still depend on weather patterns, logistics and geopolitical developments, current data suggests that the wheat market is entering the new season on a strong foundation. With the USDA highlighting robust supply gains and balanced demand, sudden price spikes are expected to remain limited in the near term.