Global Wheat Outlook Strengthens as 2025 Production Revised to New Record High

Global wheat prospects continue to improve, with the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) reporting a further upward revision of 2025 world production to a new all-time high. Increases in expected output from Canada, the European Union, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine more than offset a downward adjustment for the United Kingdom. As a result, global wheat stocks ending in 2026 are now projected higher, supported by stronger production in several major growing regions.

While the overall consumption forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly trimmed—mainly due to lower anticipated feed use in the Russian Federation—it remains above the 2024/25 level, reflecting steady demand across food, feed, and industrial sectors. Meanwhile, global wheat trade projections for 2025/26 (July/June) show little change from last month, as AMIS notes that increases in expected exports from the Russian Federation and Ukraine balance reductions projected for Brazil and the United Kingdom.

Mixed but Generally Favourable Crop Conditions Across Key Regions

In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is beginning under mostly favourable conditions. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat sowing is progressing, though with notable regional challenges.

Across the European Union, planting is underway but delayed in parts of southern Europe—especially Bulgaria and Romania—due to persistent heavy rainfall. In the Russian Federation, recent rains have improved soil moisture and early crop development, though overall progress continues to lag behind the seasonal average. Ukraine reports improving sowing conditions as recent precipitation has eased long-term drought concerns in the southern and eastern regions.

Kazakhstan is nearing completion of its spring wheat harvest while simultaneously initiating winter wheat sowing. In China, heavy rainfall and delayed harvesting of autumn crops have slowed winter wheat planting in the North China Plain. The United States reports generally favourable sowing conditions, though dryness persists in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the eastern Midwest. Canada’s winter wheat sowing is advancing as planned.

In the southern hemisphere, Australia has started harvesting under contrasting conditions—dryness continues to challenge southeastern regions, while Western Australia enjoys exceptional growing conditions. Argentina’s harvest has also begun in the northern regions, where most wheat fields are developing well.

Policy Developments Shape Market Outlook

Recent policy decisions in major wheat-producing countries are also influencing the global outlook. India’s Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved higher Minimum Support Prices for 2026/27 rabi crops, raising the wheat support price to INR 2,585 per 100 kg (USD 292/tonne), up from INR 2,425 per 100 kg (USD 274/tonne). This adjustment is expected to support farmer income and maintain planting incentives.

In Kazakhstan, government plans to allocate KZT 30 billion (USD 55.8 million) to subsidize wheat export transportation in 2026 could strengthen the country’s competitiveness in global markets. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation has lifted its wheat import ban on Kazakhstan, allowing imports under new phytosanitary guarantees from Kazakhstan’s national plant quarantine authority. This follows several months of shifting restrictions implemented since late 2024.

The combination of improved production prospects, evolving weather conditions, and key policy shifts will continue to shape global wheat market dynamics as the 2025/26 season advances.