Global Coarse Grain Production Sees Strong Gains on U.S. Output

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Global coarse grain production for the 2025/26 season is projected to rise sharply, reaching 1,572 million tons. According to the latest data, the increase of 25 million tons compared to last month is mainly driven by significant gains in U.S. corn and sorghum output. U.S. corn production alone was raised by 26.3 million metric tons, while sorghum was lifted by 0.62 million tons.

While the U.S. is leading the gains, foreign coarse grain production tells a more mixed story. USDA figures show that non-U.S. production is now forecast 1.8 million tons lower than last month, at 1,132 million tons. This is due to reductions in barley, corn, millet, oats, rye, and sorghum. Still, foreign production remains nearly 17 million tons higher than a year earlier.

In the European Union, prolonged heat and dryness have lowered corn yield expectations, trimming output by 2.0 million tons to 58 million tons. Total EU coarse grains are now pegged at 139.1 million tons, about 1.2 percent above last year. Meanwhile, the Balkans continue to struggle with drought. Serbia’s corn forecast was cut by 1.2 million tons, reversing last month’s optimism. Ukraine, on the other hand, saw a boost of 1.5 million tons to reach 32 million, helped by a larger harvested area.

North America presents a more favorable outlook. Canada’s corn production estimate was raised on improved yields, despite pockets of dryness in the southeast. Statistics Canada is expected to release official estimates later this month. Outside of corn, the most notable shift came from Uruguay, where lower harvested barley area outweighed slightly higher yields, cutting production by 0.35 million tons.

Global trade prospects have also been revised. Higher exportable supplies in the United States and Ukraine are expected to lift coarse grain trade in 2025/26. U.S. corn exports were raised by 4.5 million tons to 72.5 million, with Egypt, Colombia, the EU, and Mexico among the key destinations increasing their import projections. In contrast, Serbia and the EU are forecast to export less due to reduced domestic output.

The USDA report underscores a widening gap between regions, as favorable weather boosts crops in some countries while drought and heat continue to pressure others. Overall, the balance of stronger U.S. and Ukrainian exports against weaker European and Balkan production will be central to the global coarse grain market outlook in the coming year.