Global Grain and Oilseed Markets Under Pressure Amid Harvests and Trade Shifts

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Global agricultural markets are under renewed pressure as harvest activities accelerate in the Northern Hemisphere, export patterns shift, and trade policy uncertainties persist, according to the latest market monitoring data released by AMIS.

Wheat Markets Dip as Harvests Advance

Wheat prices continue to slide globally, with Chicago wheat futures nearing a five-year low. The Northern Hemisphere’s harvest season is progressing steadily, adding downward pressure to prices. According to AMIS, Ukraine exported just 1.67 million tonnes of grain in July—the first month of the new marketing year—representing less than half of what was shipped during the same period in 2024.

In contrast, optimism is growing in the Australian wheat sector, buoyed by timely rains in July that are improving crop outlooks for the coming season.

Maize and Soybeans: U.S. Outlook Strong, Exports Weak

U.S. maize and soybean markets are also experiencing price declines. The USDA has rated 73% of the U.S. maize crop in good to excellent condition, up 5% from last year, which has further eased prices. However, on the demand side, U.S. soybean export sales have fallen to a 20-year low for the 2025/26 marketing year, down 12% compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, China has imported another cargo of soybean meal from Argentina, marking the second such shipment in a move that highlights shifting global trade dynamics.

Rice: Weather and Policy Disruptions

Heatwaves in Japan have raised alarms about potential damage to the rice crop, further complicating the regional outlook. Policy changes are also impacting the market: the Philippines has announced a 60-day suspension of rice imports starting September 1 to protect domestic farmers during harvest.

Despite these disruptions, Viet Nam has managed to export more rice than Thailand in the first half of 2025, according to AMIS reporting, strengthening its role as a leading regional supplier.

Fertilizer Trade Watches China and India

The fertilizer market is closely watching signals that China may resume urea exports to India. While confirmation is pending, some offers in India's latest import tender point to possible Chinese participation. Urea producers remain confident ahead of the Indian Potash Limited tender, even as global trade remains sluggish.

India is also diversifying its fertilizer import sources, reducing reliance on Chinese-origin urea and expanding imports from the Russian Federation and the MENA region.

Logistics and Policy: Structural Risks Remain

Trade logistics are showing mixed signals. Shipments from China have increased sharply as exporters attempt to beat new tariff deadlines. Yet, the Baltic Dry Index—a key indicator of shipping costs—has fallen to a three-week low, underscoring broader volatility in maritime transport.

An OECD study has drawn renewed attention to the impact of rising container shipping costs on both import prices and final consumer goods. These cost pressures are compounded by ongoing trade policy uncertainty. New tariffs imposed by major economies, particularly the U.S., are straining relationships with key trading partners and adding to the unpredictability facing global supply chains.

Looking Ahead

The August outlook from AMIS presents a complex picture: abundant supply prospects in some regions, faltering export demand in others, and a geopolitical climate that continues to influence trade routes and prices. As the season progresses, global markets will remain sensitive to both policy developments and environmental conditions, with volatility expected to persist across key agricultural commodities.