Image: AI
The latest Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) report indicates that global wheat production for 2024 remains nearly unchanged this month, continuing to be slightly above the previous season’s level but still below the record set in 2022. Despite stable production estimates, global wheat utilization for the 2024/25 marketing year is expected to increase marginally, supported primarily by expanded consumption in Argentina and the European Union. However, global wheat trade for the same period has been trimmed due to weaker import demand from Türkiye and lower anticipated exports from the Russian Federation, resulting in a steeper decline in trade volumes compared to the previous season. Stocks projected to end in 2025 have been lowered slightly from last month, reflecting cuts in inventories within the EU and Türkiye, but overall global stock levels are still expected to increase marginally above their opening levels.
Crop Conditions and Regional Developments
Crop conditions across major wheat-producing regions remain mixed, with dry weather continuing to raise concerns in parts of Europe, the Russian Federation, Türkiye, Ukraine, and the United States. In the European Union, conditions for winter wheat are generally favorable, although additional rainfall is needed in Austria, Czechia, Germany, and Poland to sustain crop development. Türkiye faces challenges from prolonged dry weather and two recent cold spells, which have delayed crop growth and lowered yield prospects. The Russian Federation is seeing a range of conditions; while some areas have benefited from overwinter precipitation, others require more moisture to support growth, as spring wheat sowing gets underway. Ukraine is experiencing a precipitation deficit since the start of the year, beginning to stress winter wheat development. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s winter wheat remains in favorable condition, with spring wheat sowing progressing in the south. China’s wheat crops are also reported to be in good condition, with spring wheat sowing continuing as planned. In India, harvesting is concluding under favorable conditions in the main producing states. However, the US Great Plains are experiencing drought stress due to a lack of substantial spring rainfall, affecting key winter wheat-growing states, although spring wheat planting has started. Canada’s winter wheat conditions are favorable in Ontario and Quebec but remain under observation in the Prairies.
Market Prices, Policy, and Futures Outlook
Policy developments in several countries are also influencing wheat market dynamics. On April 3rd, South Africa and its Southern African Development Community (SADC) partners significantly reduced import duties on wheat grain and wheat flour, cutting tariffs almost by half, which aims to reduce costs for consumers and processors in the region. On April 15th, Egypt increased its wheat procurement price for the 2025 harvest season to EGP 2,200 per ardeb (approximately USD 287.58 per tonne), signaling stronger government support for domestic producers compared to last year’s procurement price. Furthermore, on April 22nd, the Russian Federation lifted its temporary import ban on wheat from Kazakhstan, a restriction that had been imposed since October 2024, following a decision by Rosselkhoznadzor, the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision. This reinstatement is expected to ease trade flows between the two countries.
International wheat prices displayed mixed trends in April. The IGC GOI wheat sub-Index posted a slight month-on-month increase, supported by a weaker US dollar and rising maize prices. Nevertheless, overall price gains were limited by broad macroeconomic uncertainties and improved weather conditions across major Northern Hemisphere wheat-growing regions, which reduced supply concerns. In the United States, wheat prices initially benefited from the USDA’s unexpectedly low forecast for 2025/26 all-wheat plantings and favorable currency movements. However, prices for US winter wheat declined due to slowing export sales and improved crop conditions. Similarly, the European Union market experienced weak sentiment as rainfall eased drought stress in some areas, while the euro’s sharp appreciation raised concerns about the region’s export competitiveness. In the Russian Federation, wheat prices softened amid subdued international demand and shifting market attention toward spring planting activities. Conversely, wheat prices in Australia strengthened, buoyed by seasonally strong export activity.
Wheat futures prices continue to face pressure amid persistent tariff-related uncertainties and favorable weather conditions supporting robust crop development. United States cash wheat, which forms the basis for Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures, remains competitively priced relative to US maize and EU wheat, but demand remains weak. Although this price competitiveness could encourage greater feed usage and export activity, potentially providing a price floor, such demand responses have yet to emerge significantly, keeping futures prices subdued.
Looking forward, the AMIS report emphasizes the need to monitor evolving weather conditions, trade policies, and macroeconomic factors as key drivers shaping the wheat market outlook. With the Northern Hemisphere winter wheat harvest approaching, market participants remain cautious amid ongoing uncertainties.
