Global Wheat Outlook Remains Stable Amid Regional Challenges

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According to the latest Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) report, the global wheat outlook for 2025/26 shows relative stability in production, trade, and utilization, despite ongoing regional weather concerns and geopolitical disruptions.

Production Outlook

Wheat production in 2025 is projected to rise slightly compared to the previous season, bolstered by improved prospects in countries such as India, Pakistan, and Ukraine. The AMIS report notes that while the overall increase is marginal, it still marks a positive shift driven by favorable crop conditions in several key producing regions. The harvest has already commenced in the northern hemisphere, with generally good conditions prevailing in countries like the United States, Canada, and across parts of the European Union.

In particular, the European Union is expecting an above-average crop, supported by strong yields in Bulgaria, Romania, and the Iberian Peninsula. Ukraine has also started its harvest in the southern regions under mostly favorable conditions, although challenges persist in areas affected by dryness and the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Türkiye has launched its harvest under mixed conditions due to extended dry spells in Southeastern Anatolia.

Utilization and Trade

Global wheat utilization for 2025/26 has been revised downward slightly month-on-month, largely due to reduced estimates in China, Morocco, and the United States. However, AMIS indicates that total usage is still expected to exceed the previous year’s level, signaling steady global demand.

Despite some minor downward revisions in expected imports by China, Morocco, and the United Arab Emirates, global trade is forecast to grow by 4 percent year-on-year. However, the report flags a likely reduction in wheat exports from the Russian Federation, adding a layer of uncertainty to overall supply flows.

Policy Developments Impacting Markets

Several important policy decisions are shaping the wheat landscape in 2025. On 3 June, Türkiye’s state-run Turkish Grain Board (TMO) raised its procurement prices for durum and milling wheat for the 2025-26 season to TRY 13,500 (USD 342.64) per tonne, with premiums enabling payments of up to TRY 16,020 (USD 406.60) per tonne. This marks a significant increase aimed at supporting domestic farmers amid inflationary pressures and rising input costs.

India, meanwhile, confirmed that its wheat export ban, initially imposed in May 2022, will remain in effect, although select shipments may be approved for countries facing food security crises. This continues to influence global supply dynamics, particularly for import-dependent nations.

On the trade front, AMIS highlights new developments from the European Union. As of 6 June, the EU reinstated tariff rate quotas on key agricultural imports, including wheat and maize from Ukraine, following the expiration of temporary autonomous trade measures. Additionally, new tariffs on imports from Belarus and Russia will come into effect on 1 July, further impacting trade flows from the Black Sea region.

Price Trends and Market Sentiment

Despite the start of the northern hemisphere harvest season, global wheat prices edged upward in June, driven by ongoing weather risks and heightened geopolitical tensions in the Near East and the Black Sea. While U.S. wheat prices were tempered by slow export activity and increased supplies, AMIS notes that rain-induced harvest delays and potential quality issues kept traders cautious.

Conversely, in the Russian Federation, wheat prices found support due to drought concerns and uncertainty over spring wheat plantings. In the EU, increasing production expectations exerted downward pressure on prices, though the euro's strength posed additional challenges to export competitiveness.