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The global wheat sector is on a path to partial recovery in 2025, buoyed by modest gains in production and a rebound in international trade, according to the June 2025 report by the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS). However, the overall outlook remains clouded by regional weather concerns and shifting government policies, which continue to affect supply dynamics and market sentiment.
Modest Rise in Global Wheat Production for 2025
Global wheat production in 2025 is projected to increase marginally—by 0.3 percent—compared to the previous year. This minor growth is primarily attributed to a production rebound in the European Union, where improved weather and recovery from last year’s difficulties are expected to boost output. Smaller, yet still notable increases are also forecast in Argentina, India, and the United Kingdom.
In India, the 2025 harvest is wrapping up under favorable conditions, which has provided stability in both domestic supply and global sentiment. Meanwhile, Argentina and the UK are beginning their respective planting and growing seasons with a positive outlook, though final yields will depend on continued weather cooperation.
Utilization Forecast to Grow Across Food, Feed, and Industrial Sectors
Global wheat utilization is forecast to grow by 1.2 percent in the 2025/26 season. This increase reflects expanding demand in several key sectors. Food consumption is expected to continue its steady rise, especially in populous countries where wheat remains a dietary staple. Additionally, feed use is set to grow moderately, supported by relatively stable prices and supply availability.
Industrial usage—covering wheat-based biofuels, starch, and other derivatives—is also expected to expand slightly, driven by downstream demand in manufacturing and food processing industries. Together, these factors contribute to a more active and balanced wheat market globally.
Trade Rebounds on the Back of Chinese and Turkish Demand
After a sharp decline in wheat trade during 2024/25, international wheat trade is projected to recover by 3.8 percent in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June). This rebound is largely fueled by renewed import demand from China and Türkiye—two key markets that are expected to ramp up purchases due to lower domestic output and increased consumption needs.
On the export side, higher volumes are expected from Argentina, the European Union, and the Russian Federation, where competitive pricing and relatively strong supply positions are boosting their presence in global markets. This return to a more fluid trade environment should ease some of the pressures felt during the past year’s downturn, though logistical and geopolitical factors will remain influential.
Global Stocks to Decline Despite Production Gains
Despite the modest increase in global production, wheat stocks are expected to decline by 2.2 percent by the end of the 2025/26 season. This contraction reflects tightening inventories in several major exporting countries.
Significant drawdowns are forecast in Argentina, the European Union, Pakistan, and the Russian Federation. In these countries, rising domestic use, coupled with strong export activity and weather-related production issues, is contributing to reduced stock levels. This situation could create tighter supply margins heading into the next marketing season, especially if production falters in 2026.
Mixed Crop Conditions Across Major Producing Regions
Crop conditions for wheat remain varied across the globe, with notable concerns in both hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere, dry weather is affecting winter wheat in parts of China, Europe, and the United States. These conditions are occurring just as wheat enters the critical flowering and grain-filling stages, raising concerns about potential yield losses.
In the European Union, prolonged dryness over northern and central areas is a significant concern. Winter wheat is in the flowering phase—a key period for determining grain yield—and any moisture stress could have lasting consequences. Similarly, Türkiye is grappling with extended dry conditions, especially in Southeastern Anatolia, which has likely diminished yield prospects.
The Russian Federation presents a mixed picture: while winter wheat in some areas is progressing well, others are experiencing less favorable conditions. Spring wheat sowing is ongoing, but inconsistent precipitation is complicating field operations. In Ukraine, May rainfall has benefited crops in the central and western regions, though drought and frost have damaged crops in the south and east.
In Asia, China’s wheat is developing under generally favorable conditions, but recent hot and dry spells across several provinces may weigh on final yields. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat sowing is beginning, and winter wheat is developing normally.
In the United States, the winter wheat harvest has commenced in the southern Plains under mostly favorable conditions, while spring wheat sowing continues across the north. Canada is also seeing steady progress, with spring wheat being sown in the Prairies and winter wheat developing in the eastern provinces.
In the Southern Hemisphere, wheat planting is now underway. In Australia, sowing is accelerating, but additional rainfall is urgently needed in South Australia and western Victoria to ensure successful germination. Argentina is also beginning its sowing season, setting the stage for a new production cycle.
Government Policy Developments Reshape Domestic Markets
Governments in several key wheat-producing and -consuming countries have implemented policy changes in May 2025 that could have lasting effects on markets.
On 20 May, Bangladesh approved a proposal to procure wheat through government-to-government (G2G) deals, a move aimed at stabilizing domestic supply amidst fluctuating import prices.
In the Russian Federation, authorities lifted the unofficial recommended minimum export price for wheat effective until 1 July, marking the end of a measure that had been in place since October 2024. This change could lead to increased flexibility for Russian exporters, especially in competitive markets.
India, in an effort to manage domestic supply and reduce speculative hoarding, reimposed maximum stock limits on wheat holdings starting 27 May. New limits include a cap of 3,000 tonnes for traders or wholesalers, 10 tonnes per outlet for retailers and chain stores, and 70 percent of installed capacity (adjusted for remaining months in the financial year) for processors. The government also reinforced the requirement for regular stock position declarations since 1 April 2025.
International and Futures Prices Remain Volatile
Wheat export prices eased slightly during May, but movements were uneven across origins. Initial declines were attributed to ample short-term supply, but concerns over unfavorable weather in key producing regions—including China, Ukraine, the EU, and the Russian Federation—sparked a rebound later in the month.
In the United States, early optimism about crop prospects and slower old crop export sales pressured prices downward. However, weaker-than-expected crop condition ratings helped reverse some of these losses. In the European Union, particularly in France, prices remained under pressure due to low overseas demand and improved weather in northern regions. Russian wheat prices declined modestly, in part due to the removal of the recommended export floor price.
Wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Euronext remained relatively stable in May, trading around USD 190 and USD 220 per tonne, respectively. This price stability reflects cautious optimism among traders, who are waiting for further clarity on crop outcomes before committing to large positions. Despite weather concerns, current inventories remain sufficient, leading both physical buyers and financial investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Conclusion
The global wheat market appears to be entering a phase of cautious recovery, supported by modest production gains and a revival in international trade. However, significant regional challenges remain, particularly concerning weather-related risks and government interventions. As highlighted in the AMIS June 2025 report, the market's next moves will depend heavily on how crops develop in the coming months and whether forecasted production levels materialize in full. With tight stocks in some major exporters and mixed crop conditions, both buyers and sellers are advised to stay alert as the 2025/26 season unfolds.
