USDA Updates Livestock and Dairy Forecasts Amid Tighter Red Meat Supplies

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its outlook for livestock, poultry, and dairy markets, pointing to a mixed picture for 2025 and 2026.

For 2025, red meat and poultry production is generally trending lower. Beef output is reduced on smaller cattle slaughter and lighter weights, while pork production is also trimmed due to slower slaughter rates and lighter carcasses. In contrast, broiler production has been revised higher on recent hatchery data, while turkey and egg production are both set lower. Looking into 2026, beef and pork production remain on the downswing, while broiler and turkey production rise on the back of lower feed costs and steady demand.

Trade adjustments reflect shifting market dynamics. Beef imports are lowered for both 2025 and 2026, reflecting softer shipments, particularly from Brazil, following higher tariff rates. Beef exports are also reduced amid tighter domestic supplies. On the other hand, pork exports in 2025 are raised based on stronger official trade data, and poultry exports are also trending higher, with broiler and turkey shipments showing gains.

Price forecasts show some clear signals. Cattle prices are lifted for 2025 and 2026 on resilient demand, and hog prices also strengthen as tighter supplies support the market. Broiler prices, however, weaken in the second half of 2025, with pressure expected to continue into 2026. Turkey prices rise over the same period on firm demand and limited red meat availability. Egg prices are revised lower for late 2025 but left unchanged for 2026.

Milk production is projected higher in both years, supported by increased cow inventories and improved yields per cow. USDA notes that fat basis imports for 2025 are reduced while skim-solids imports rise on milk protein concentrates. Export prospects remain firm, with stronger shipments of butter, cheese, dried skim milk, whey, and other dairy products across 2025 and 2026.

Price forecasts within the dairy sector are varied: butter prices for 2025 are reduced on recent weakness, while nonfat dry milk is raised. The Class III milk price remains steady, Class IV is adjusted lower in 2025 but higher in 2026, and the all-milk price holds at $22.00 per cwt in 2025 before easing slightly to $21.90 in 2026.

Overall, USDA’s projections highlight tighter supplies in red meat, steady growth in poultry and milk, and a pricing environment that reflects both resilient consumer demand and ongoing global trade shifts.