Global Wheat Stocks Tighten as U.S. Exports Gain Pace

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The latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for 2025/26 point to a wheat market that is gradually tightening, with U.S. exports gaining momentum just as global supplies continue to edge lower.

In the U.S., production is pegged at 1,927 million bushels, down slightly on reduced harvested area, though yields are a touch higher at 52.7 bushels per acre. The mix shows losses for Hard Red Spring and White wheat but gains for Hard Red Winter, Durum, and Soft Red Winter. Domestic food use has been trimmed back, yet exports have been lifted to 875 million bushels as sales and shipments run well ahead of expectations. With ending stocks now projected at 869 million bushels, the U.S. balance sheet looks a bit tighter, while the season-average farm price is marked down to $5.30 per bushel, reflecting weaker corn values and softer expectations for wheat in the near term.

Globally, supplies are projected at 1,069.6 million tons, down 2.5 million, underscoring a shift toward a leaner stock position. Production losses in China, Brazil, and Argentina outweigh gains in the European Union, where Romania and Slovakia have seen strong yields. China’s crop is cut by 2.0 million tons to 140.0 million, while EU output rises to 138.3 million, the highest in four years.

Consumption is forecast at 809.5 million tons, trimmed slightly as feed demand in China, Indonesia, and the Philippines eases. Trade, however, is nudged higher to 213.5 million tons, with the U.S. emerging as a stronger supplier in the global mix. World ending stocks are reduced to 260.1 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16 — a signal that the cushion in global wheat supplies is getting thinner.

For the market, the message is clear: while U.S. prices have been revised modestly lower, the broader global picture leans supportive. Shrinking stocks, firm demand, and the U.S.’s improving export position suggest that any further weather disruptions or supply shocks could quickly translate into stronger price volatility as the season progresses.