Global Maize Production Forecast Raised as Trade Heads for Record High

Global maize production prospects for 2026 have been revised slightly higher from the previous month, reflecting upward adjustments to output expectations in Argentina, Brazil, China and Zambia. Despite the revision, production is still projected to remain below the record level achieved in 2025. According to the latest AMIS monthly report, maize utilization in the 2026/27 marketing year has been lowered marginally from the previous forecast, mainly because of reduced other uses.

Maize trade in 2026/27 remains largely unchanged from the previous month and is still projected to reach a record level, supported by strong demand, ample supplies from Argentina, and large carryover stocks in Brazil and Ukraine. Global ending stocks in 2027 are also expected to build on largely unchanged opening levels, with this month's upward revisions concentrated in China and the United States.

Regional crop conditions

Harvesting is progressing across the southern hemisphere, while dryness is developing in parts of the northern hemisphere.

In Brazil, harvesting of the spring-planted crop is wrapping up as harvesting of the larger summer-planted crop begins. Argentina continues to harvest its late-planted crop under favourable conditions. In the United States, maize conditions remain favourable, with good emergence and silking, while Canada is also reporting favourable conditions and good emergence.

In Mexico, harvesting of the autumn-winter crop is ongoing as sowing of the spring-summer crop continues. China reports favourable conditions for the larger spring-maize crop while sowing of the smaller summer-maize crop continues. In India, planting of the Kharif crop is beginning under mixed conditions because of the slow progress of the Southwest Monsoon. Indonesia is completing the harvest of its wet-season crop while sowing of the dry-season crop continues.

Crop conditions have improved in southeastern Europe, although hot spells in western Europe could negatively affect maize yields. Ukraine continues to report generally favourable conditions despite dry soils in the eastern and western regions, while conditions also remain favourable in the Russian Federation.

Policy developments were limited during the month. On 11 June, Argentina's Ministry of Economy authorized the commercialisation of a new type of transgenic maize offering greater protection from certain pests through Resolution 80/2026.

International maize export prices declined further during June. The IGC maize sub-Index fell by 3 percent month-on-month to an eight-month low. US quotations weakened on broadly favourable Midwest production prospects and increasing competition from South America. Export prices in Argentina also moved lower under harvest pressure, although overall losses were moderated by a recent slowdown in country movement. Seasonal harvesting of Brazil's secondary (safrinha) crop also weighed on the market. Although Ukrainian maize continued to trade at a premium to other origins, prices softened as export demand remained subdued, including from buyers in Türkiye and Egypt, the latest AMIS report noted.