Oilseed Outlook Darkens: Lower Crops and Shrinking Stocks Signal Tighter Market

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The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates projects a tighter outlook for soybeans in the 2025/26 season, with beginning stocks, production, and ending stocks all moving lower.

U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, a 43-million-bushel decline from the previous month. The drop reflects a smaller harvested area, estimated at 80.1 million acres, down 2.4 million, though yields are slightly higher at 53.6 bushels per acre. Despite the improved yield, total supplies are lower. With export sales progressing at a slow pace, exports have been cut by 40 million bushels, while crush remains steady at 2.54 billion bushels. Ending stocks are expected to fall to 290 million bushels, 20 million below last month’s forecast.

USDA holds the 2025/26 season-average soybean price unchanged at $10.10 per bushel. Soybean meal is forecast at $280 per short ton, down $10, while soybean oil stays steady at 53 cents per pound.

On the global side, oilseed production is reduced by 3.3 million tons to 690.1 million, mainly due to smaller soybean, sunflowerseed, and cottonseed crops. Sunflowerseed output in particular is cut by 1.2 million tons to 55.1 million, as hot and dry conditions weigh on yields across the EU, Ukraine, Turkey, and Serbia.

Soybean production worldwide is trimmed largely on lower output in the U.S. and Serbia. U.S. exports are scaled back, though Argentina and Uruguay are expected to ship more. Import demand is softening in the EU, Iran, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks are now forecast at 124.9 million tons, down 1.2 million from last month, reflecting lower inventories in Argentina, the EU, Iran, Vietnam, and the United States.

The adjustments highlight a market environment where steady crush demand meets tightening supplies, leaving less cushion in global stocks. USDA’s numbers suggest that while prices remain stable for now, the balance between demand and production could set the stage for sharper movements later in the season if weather or trade flows shift.