IGC’s June Report: Global Grain and Oilseed Markets Maintain Upward Momentum into 2025/26

In its June 2025 update, the International Grains Council (IGC) has delivered a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global grains, oilseeds, and pulses markets, projecting growth across key commodities into the 2025/26 season. The report highlights continued expansion in global production, driven by stronger harvests and marginal but notable improvements in consumption and trade forecasts.

Total Grains: Modest Upturn, Inventory Pressure Remains

For 2024/25, the IGC has raised its total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production forecast by 3 million tonnes (m/m), reaching 2,313 million tonnes, due primarily to an upgraded maize estimate. However, despite this increase, total supply remains under pressure from reduced opening stocks. Consequently, global carryovers are forecast to decline by 4% year-on-year (y/y) to a ten-year low of 582 million tonnes, underlining the continued tightness in global availability.

Trade for 2024/25 is now forecast at 423 million tonnes, marking a significant drop of 36 million tonnes from the previous year, reflecting broad-based declines across regions.

Looking ahead to 2025/26, IGC projects total grains output to climb further by 2 million tonnes m/m, reaching 2,377 million tonnes, up 3% y/y. The strongest contributions are expected from maize, with additional gains in wheat, sorghum, and oats. With an uptick in food, feed, and industrial uses, total consumption is expected to rise to 2,373 million tonnes. Slightly larger carry-in stocks, combined with production gains, result in a small increase in end-season inventories, now forecast at 586 million tonnes. This would represent a slight recovery from the previous year’s low but still signal continued volatility in global stock levels.

Grains trade in 2025/26 is pegged at 430 million tonnes, 2% higher y/y, driven by increased wheat shipments.

Wheat and Maize: Mixed Fortunes

Wheat production gains are a key driver behind higher overall grains trade, particularly in 2025/26. However, despite a projected drawdown in wheat inventories, especially outside the major exporters, maize stocks in the U.S. are expected to expand, providing some balance to global supply dynamics.

Soyabeans: Production at Record Highs, Trade Slightly Trimmed

Compared to the May outlook, IGC reports relatively marginal changes to soyabean fundamentals. In 2024/25, global trade expectations have been trimmed by 1 million tonnes due to a slower pace of shipments; nevertheless, trade is still on track to hit a record.

For 2025/26, global soyabean production is forecast to rise 1% y/y, reaching a fresh all-time high, mainly on expectations for larger South American crops. While consumption is set to register a solid +18 million tonnes increase, this will likely result in a slight decline in combined end-season carryovers. That said, reserves among the major exporters are projected to rise to a seven-year high, lending confidence to supply stability in the medium term. Trade is projected to increase modestly and hit a new record of 183 million tonnes.

Rice: Indian Growth Dominates the Forecast

A standout in the IGC’s June report is rice, with the 2024/25 global production estimate raised to a record 541 million tonnes, largely due to upward revisions in India’s output. The country’s influence continues into 2025/26, as India once again leads a 3 million tonne m/m increase in world production. With stronger carry-in stocks, global inventories have been revised up by 5 million tonnes month-on-month.

Rice consumption is expected to grow by 1%, supported by higher availability, while stocks — particularly in India — are projected to reach near 50 million tonnes. Global trade is forecast to hold steady at a record 60 million tonnes in 2026, buoyed by stronger demand from Africa.

Lentils: Output Growth Meets Softening Trade

After a solid expansion in the previous season, lentil production is forecast to rise again in 2025/26 by 2%, according to IGC. Ample availability is set to support increased consumption and inventory levels. However, trade in 2025 is forecast to decline by 4% to 4.7 million tonnes, primarily due to softer demand from India. This level is expected to persist into 2026.

Strategic Takeaway for Shareholders

The IGC June report outlines a global grains and oilseeds sector navigating a delicate balance between recovery and continued tightness. While record harvests are projected for soyabeans, rice, and maize, and modest improvements are seen in grains inventories, the market remains sensitive to shifts in demand and geopolitical trade dynamics.

For stakeholders across the agricultural value chain — from traders and processors to input suppliers and exporters — the evolving supply-demand picture underscores the importance of flexibility and forward planning. Strategic positioning in key markets, particularly South America, India, and the U.S., will be essential to capitalizing on the changing landscape.

As always, developments in global weather patterns, regional politics, and trade policy will continue to influence the outlook. The IGC’s regular updates remain a critical resource in navigating this complex terrain.