Global Wheat Market: Supply, Trade and Price Outlook

Global wheat production expectations for 2026 have been raised compared with July, reflecting improved harvest prospects in Canada, Morocco, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The gains more than offset weather-related losses in parts of Europe. Wheat utilization in 2026/27 has been revised slightly higher, but is still expected to decline from the exceptionally high level recorded in the previous season. The trade outlook for the July 2026-June 2027 period was revised down again, as exporters in the Black Sea region continue to face logistical constraints and exportable supplies tighten in Europe. Ending stocks in 2027 are expected to increase marginally, supported by higher carry-over stocks in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, as well as in Asian importing countries including China, India and Türkiye.

In the Northern Hemisphere, the winter wheat harvest is nearing completion under mixed conditions, while spring wheat harvesting is gaining pace. Conditions in the Southern Hemisphere remain generally favourable. In the European Union, harvesting is drawing to a close, with above-average yields in Bulgaria and Romania offsetting below-average yields in parts of Western and Central Europe. In Türkiye, the winter wheat harvest is nearing completion with exceptional yields. Harvesting in Ukraine is also nearing completion with exceptional yields. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvesting is concluding in the south with above-average yields.

Regional differences emerge in harvest conditions

In the Russian Federation, spring wheat harvesting is beginning under favourable conditions, with the total sown area smaller than last year. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat harvesting has just begun under favourable conditions, while harvesting is underway in China. In the US, the winter wheat harvest is nearing completion, while spring wheat harvesting is progressing with above-average yields. In Canada, winter wheat harvesting is continuing and the spring wheat harvest is just beginning, with above-average yields expected in Alberta. In Australia, conditions are exceptional in South Australia and Victoria, while dryness has reduced prospects in Queensland. In Argentina, conditions are favourable, with previously excessive moisture receding in affected areas.

The September assessment by AMIS also highlights policy developments affecting wheat trade. On 11 July, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture introduced a six-month ban on wheat imports. The measure prohibits wheat imports from third countries and from the Eurasian Economic Union by road, water and rail. Exceptions allow imports by rail for poultry farms, grain processing enterprises, licensed elevators and the state-owned Food Contract Corporation Joint Stock Company. Transit of wheat by rail is also permitted, and the measure entered into force on 27 July.

In Türkiye, the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) eased restrictions on exports of milling wheat and broken wheat on 29 July. Exports of both product categories had been suspended since March 2025. On 4 August, Türkiye’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry tightened phytosanitary requirements for wheat imports, introducing presence/absence testing for four fungal pathogens instead of tolerance thresholds. The new requirements were established under a Plant Quarantine Regulation published in the Official Gazette on 6 May and entering into force 90 days later.

In India, the Directorate-General of Foreign Trade changed the export policy for wheat, wheat flour and other wheat-based products from “prohibited” to “free” on 24 August. The change was implemented through Notifications No. 34/2026-27 and No. 35/2026-2027. In January, the government had allowed limited export volumes despite the ban introduced in 2022.

Prices and futures move higher

The GOI wheat sub-index rose by 8 percent in August, reaching its highest level in nearly three years. The increase was mainly driven by worsening disruptions to Black Sea supplies amid intensified hostilities. US prices received further support from a weaker US dollar and an increase in export sales, although accumulated commitments remained below the previous season’s level. EU prices in France increased on renewed buying interest and reduced Black Sea exports, while a stronger euro weighed on export competitiveness. In the Russian Federation, FOB prices at Novorossiysk declined amid a weaker rouble and limited outlets for sizeable new-crop supplies. Black Sea shipments were nearly at a standstill, with deliveries shifting towards Baltic and Caspian ports.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Euronext rose to three-year highs amid concerns over reduced export availability from the Black Sea region. Attacks on vessels, ports and grain export infrastructure in the Russian Federation and Ukraine disrupted shipments during a seasonally important export period, increasing uncertainty over short-term supplies. Expectations for alternative trade routes and hopes for a diplomatic solution, however, limited further gains. New-crop wheat futures also received support from low soil moisture levels in southern US winter wheat areas. With most planting still ahead, market attention is focused on how conditions develop over the coming weeks.

CME maize futures also climbed to three-year highs amid expectations of lower US yields and concerns over Black Sea exports. A lower-than-expected USDA production forecast, together with crop tour results pointing to yields below expectations, increased concerns over the US supply outlook and contributed to one of the sharpest price rallies seen in August in more than two decades.