Outlook for Production, Trade and Stocks in the Global Wheat Market

The production outlook for the global wheat market in 2026 has been revised upwards, particularly following an improvement in final yields in Australia. However, production is expected to remain well below the previous year’s record harvest. The usage forecast for the 2026/27 season has also been revised upwards on a monthly basis. It is noted that this change is driven by higher industrial use in Australia and higher feed use in the European Union. Nevertheless, total usage is forecast to show a modest decline compared with the previous season.

For the 2026/27 season, the forecast for global wheat trade covering the July–June period has been revised downwards. Trade volumes are expected to contract by 7 per cent compared with last year. Logistical constraints, particularly those affecting shipments originating from the Black Sea region, are a key factor in this outlook. The restrictions on shipments indicate that international trade volumes will be at a lower level compared with the previous season.

The outlook for end-of-season stocks has changed due to expectations of higher stock levels. End-of-season stocks are expected to rise as a result of higher inventories in Australia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. According to the current forecast, end-of-season stocks are projected to be 8 million tonnes above the opening level. Consequently, despite the expected decline in production, the stock outlook shows a higher level compared to the previous assessment.

Global Wheat Sowing and Harvest Conditions

Whilst the spring wheat harvest in the Northern Hemisphere is nearing completion, the sowing of winter wheat is beginning under varying conditions. In the Southern Hemisphere, meanwhile, production conditions are reported to be generally favourable. The AMIS assessment notes that, in addition to differing production conditions between countries, developments in the sowing and harvesting processes are influencing the global outlook.

Recent rainfall in Ukraine has improved soil moisture. This is supporting the sowing and emergence of the 2026/27 winter wheat crop. However, the total area sown is expected to be below last year’s level. In the Russian Federation, the spring wheat harvest is continuing under favourable conditions, whilst the 2026/27 winter wheat sowing is significantly behind the normal schedule. It is noted that both climatic and socio-economic factors are contributing to this delay.

In Kazakhstan, the spring wheat harvest is progressing under favourable conditions. In Turkey, meanwhile, the sowing of winter wheat is beginning. In the US, it is reported that the spring wheat harvest is nearing completion with above-average yields. As the 2026/27 winter wheat sowing season also begins, the ongoing hot and dry conditions in the Southern Plains are emerging as a cause for concern.

In Canada, whilst the winter wheat harvest is nearing completion, the spring wheat harvest is continuing. Above-average yields are expected in Alberta. In Australia, whilst conditions in South Australia and Victoria are described as exceptional, the drought in Queensland is negatively affecting production expectations. In Western Australia, it is reported that the drought poses a threat to yields.

In Argentina, production conditions are generally favourable. The crop is predominantly in the vegetative growth stage. However, it is noted that the total area sown has decreased compared to last year.

Alongside the global production outlook, differences in production conditions across countries also play a significant role in the overall market balance. Whilst some regions of Australia are experiencing favourable conditions and above-average yields are expected in the US and Canada, drought and delays in the sowing schedule are a cause for concern in certain production regions.

On the policy front, Japan has announced a significant change. In a statement issued on 9 September, the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced that, from October onwards, it would increase the government selling price for imported wheat by 12 per cent.

As for wheat prices, a decline was observed in September following the sharp rise seen in the previous month. The GOI wheat sub-index fell by 5 per cent on a monthly basis. Prices initially reached their highest level in three years, driven by ongoing shipping bottlenecks in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. However, prices retreated following the acceleration of diplomatic efforts to ease tensions in the Black Sea.

US prices came under pressure from a stronger dollar and a disappointing export performance. In the European Union, expectations that shipments from the Black Sea might resume had an impact, particularly on prices in France. Slower-than-expected demand and an acceleration in farmers’ sales also exerted downward pressure on prices.

Prices in Russia’s Black Sea region remained at nominal levels due to a significant reduction in activity. Only a fraction of the displaced volumes could be met via alternative routes. Ukraine’s deep-sea prices, meanwhile, were largely unquoted. Shipments via alternative routes fell well short of their potential due to increased congestion and capacity constraints.

According to AMIS data, the current outlook reveals a picture in which production, consumption, trade and stocks in the global wheat market are moving in different directions. Whilst production is expected to fall short of last year’s record level, changes in consumption forecasts and, in particular, logistical constraints originating from the Black Sea are dragging down trade expectations. Conversely, higher stock expectations in Australia, the Russian Federation and Ukraine support the forecast that end-of-season stocks for 2027 will exceed the opening level.