El Niño 2026–27: What Could It Mean for Global Corn and Feed Markets?

As El Niño strengthens heading into the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere winter, the global feed industry is entering a period in which weather risk could become increasingly important for corn, feed grains and oilseed markets.

According to NOAA’s latest assessment, issued on 10 September, there is now a greater than 90% probability of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter. NOAA also estimates a 75% chance that the October–December period could produce a historic-strength event, although the agency stresses that stronger El Niño conditions increase the likelihood of typical impacts without guaranteeing them.

For the feed industry, the significance of El Niño lies less in a simple question of whether global corn production will fall and more in where production conditions change, how exportable supplies move between regions, and what this means for feed costs.

Corn: Regional weather risks matter

Corn is particularly sensitive to weather during key planting and growing stages. However, El Niño does not affect every major producing region in the same way. Its impact therefore needs to be assessed country by country rather than through a single global production assumption.

The current global picture illustrates this complexity. FAO's September cereal outlook puts 2026 global maize production at around 1.309 billion tonnes, 0.6% below its June projection. The downward revision is primarily linked to deteriorating crop prospects in parts of the European Union, particularly France and Poland. At the same time, better-than-expected yields in Argentina and Brazil have led to upward revisions for those countries.

This divergence is important for the feed market. A production decline in one major exporting region does not necessarily translate into a global shortage if another exporter can increase shipments.

Argentina is already an important example. The country's corn exports are expected to reach record levels in August and September 2026 following a bumper harvest, while stronger demand and disruptions to Ukrainian exports have created additional opportunities for Argentine suppliers.

The United States remains a critical market

The United States will remain one of the most important variables for the global corn balance.

USDA's June acreage report estimated 2026 U.S. corn plantings at 95.3 million acres, 3% below 2025, while corn stocks on 1 June were 14% higher than a year earlier.

USDA's August feed-grain outlook subsequently projected U.S. 2026/27 corn ending stocks at approximately 42 million tonnes, 3.5 million tonnes below the previous month's forecast, largely because of higher expected use and exports.

This means the U.S. market enters the El Niño period with an important balance to manage: inventories provide some buffer, but export demand and domestic consumption can tighten availability.

For international buyers, the key question will therefore not simply be whether U.S. corn production is large enough. It will be how much corn remains available for export after domestic demand is satisfied.

Feed costs could become more volatile

Corn is only one part of the feed equation.

Poultry, livestock and aquaculture producers also depend heavily on soybean meal and other protein ingredients. Here again, the current global situation is mixed rather than uniformly negative.

USDA currently forecasts record U.S. soybean production for 2026/27, supported by higher harvested acreage. Global soybean crushing is also projected to increase, with strong demand for soybean meal and oil supporting the market.

This could provide some protection for feed manufacturers if corn markets become tighter. Feed formulations can adjust to relative prices, although the extent of substitution depends on animal species, nutritional requirements, local availability and formulation economics.

As a result, the effect of El Niño on feed prices may not be visible through corn alone. The relationship between corn, soybean meal, wheat, barley and other feed ingredients will be equally important.

Trade flows could change faster than production

One of the most important lessons from previous weather-driven market disruptions is that trade can adjust rapidly.

If El Niño-related weather reduces production in one exporting region, buyers may turn to alternative origins. Argentina, Brazil, the United States and other exporters could therefore compete for market share depending on harvest results, domestic consumption, freight costs and export policies.

The current Argentine corn situation demonstrates how quickly these changes can occur. Increased demand from North African markets has already created additional opportunities for Argentine suppliers as Ukraine faces continued logistical challenges.

For feed manufacturers and livestock producers, this means that origin diversification may become increasingly valuable during the 2026–27 season.

What should the feed industry watch?

The next several months will be particularly important for monitoring:

• Corn production forecasts in the United States, Brazil and Argentina
• Weather developments across major South American growing regions
• U.S. corn export commitments and ending stocks
• European maize yields following the 2026 summer heat and dryness
• Soybean production and soybean meal availability
• Freight and Black Sea logistics
• Feed demand from poultry, livestock and aquaculture sectors
• Currency movements and energy costs affecting feed manufacturing

The central message for the feed sector is therefore one of volatility rather than certainty.

A very strong El Niño increases the potential for significant regional weather effects, but it does not automatically mean a global corn shortage or sharply higher feed prices. Current forecasts already show substantial production in several important exporting countries, while global feed markets retain the ability to adjust through trade, substitution and inventory management.

For feed manufacturers, traders and livestock producers, the most important issue will be identifying where the next supply constraint emerges—and how quickly the global market can respond.

Next in the series: El Niño 2026–27: How Could Global Grain Trade Routes Change?