The Outlook for the 2026/27 Season in the Global Wheat Market: Ample Supply, Limited Trade

As the global wheat market enters the 2026/27 marketing year, it presents a striking picture on both the production and trade fronts. On the one hand, favourable weather conditions and higher-than-expected yields are supporting supply; on the other, logistical constraints in the Black Sea region continue to limit trade flows. The supply-demand outlook, country-specific conditions, policy developments and price movements are examined together below.

According to the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) report, the production forecast for 2026 has been revised upwards. The revision was driven by favourable weather conditions in Turkey and higher-than-expected yields in Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and Ukraine. During the 2026/27 period, usage changed only marginally compared with the previous month, whilst remaining below last year’s record level. The year-on-year decline in feed consumption in Asia and South America offset the 0.8 per cent increase in food consumption. Trade is forecast to fall below the five-year average in the 2026/27 (July/June) period; shipments from the Russian Federation and Ukraine are declining due to logistical constraints in the Black Sea. End-of-2027 stocks are expected to exceed opening levels and reach a record high. This is driven not only by stock build-up in Asia but also by the rise in inventories in the Russian Federation and Ukraine due to export bottlenecks.

Country-by-Country Sowing and Harvest Conditions

Whilst conditions are generally favourable in the southern hemisphere as the harvest gets underway, winter wheat sowing is progressing in the northern hemisphere. In the European Union, sowing for the 2026/27 season is proceeding under mixed conditions; whilst drought in southern and central Europe is hindering crop emergence, excessive rainfall in the Baltic states is delaying sowing. In Ukraine, although conditions are favourable for winter wheat, growth is slightly behind normal due to late sowing; the total area sown is expected to be lower than last year. In the Russian Federation, however, sowing has picked up pace following initial delays, and conditions are favourable. In Kazakhstan, the spring wheat harvest is drawing to a close under favourable conditions, whilst in Turkey, winter wheat sowing is continuing.

The picture is generally positive in other producing countries. In the US, the 2026/27 winter wheat sowing season is underway, and recent rainfall has alleviated drought conditions in some parts of the Central and Southern Plains. In Canada, winter wheat sowing is getting underway under favourable conditions. In Australia, the harvest is ongoing; whilst above-average yields are expected in South Australia and Victoria, below-average yields are forecast for Queensland. In Argentina, conditions are favourable as the harvest gets underway in the north.

Among the policy developments reported by AMIS, three countries stand out. In India, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved on 30 September an increase in the minimum support price (MSP) for six rabi (winter-sown) crops for the 2027/28 marketing year. For wheat, the MSP rose from 2,585 Indian rupees per kental (273.8 US dollars per tonne) to 2,610 rupees (276.4 US dollars per tonne); it is noted that supply typically takes place during the April–June harvest period. In Australia, the revised version of the Simplified Wheat Port Code, announced by the government on 17 September, came into force on 1 October and will remain in effect for three years. On 24 October, the Egyptian Prime Minister announced plans to raise the wheat purchase price for the 2027 harvest from 2,500 Egyptian pounds per ardeb (150 kg) to 2,650 pounds (from US$309 to US$328 per tonne).

On the international price front, despite ongoing disruptions to shipments from the Black Sea, average export prices fell by 6 per cent in October, dropping to their lowest level in three months. Whilst rising energy prices provided some support, expectations of progress in the planned peace talks between the Russian Federation and Ukraine, along with hopes of a bumper harvest in the southern hemisphere, weighed on market sentiment. US prices, meanwhile, remained under pressure from a strengthening dollar, sluggish export performance and improving sowing conditions; nevertheless, an increase in export sales was observed towards the end of the month. Weakness in EU (France) prices was more limited; spot prices were supported by new demand from abroad and a weaker euro. Whilst Russia’s Black Sea prices remained nominal, offers from Baltic ports remained competitive with EU-origin products; despite recent increases, shipments remained well below normal levels. With the start of the harvest, positive crop expectations also pushed down prices in Argentina and Australia.

The overall picture points to a comfortable outlook for production and stocks in the 2026/27 season, logistical constraints on the trade side, and downward pressure on prices.