Drought and Global Competition Are Weighing on US Wheat Exports

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The US’s position in the global wheat trade is entering a new phase in the 2026/27 season. The fact that the country—once the world’s largest wheat exporter—is expected to see its exports fall to their lowest level in three years and slip to fifth place in the global rankings signals a reshaping of global competition and supply dynamics. Limited domestic supply in the US due to drought, a record-low area under cultivation, and strong harvests from rival producers such as Canada and Australia are among the key factors shaping the trade outlook for the new season.

According to the USDA’s September 2026 assessment, the US’s total wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year remains unchanged from the August forecast at 1,531 million bushels. US wheat exports are also expected to remain at 775 million bushels, the same as the previous month’s forecast. However, adjustments have been made to the export outlook by grade. The export forecast for Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat has been reduced by 15 million bushels to 195 million, whilst that for Hard Red Spring (HRS) has been lowered by 5 million bushels to 235 million. The forecast for white wheat exports, meanwhile, has been increased by 20 million bushels to 220 million bushels.

US wheat imports for the 2026/27 season are expected to total 140 million bushels. Total wheat exports for the June–July 2026 period were calculated at 117 million bushels, a 22 per cent decrease compared with the same period last year. Imports during the same period rose by 8 per cent to 24 million bushels.

Significant Decline in Export Commitments

The pace of sales and shipments is particularly striking in the US’s export performance for the new marketing year. As of 3 September, the US’s total wheat export commitments stood at 8.8 million tonnes, or approximately 322 million bushels. This figure is 31 per cent lower than the same period last year. Current commitments account for 42 per cent of the total exports forecast for the marketing year, a figure that remains below the average for this stage of the year.

The decline in HRW wheat is even more pronounced. The US’s total HRW export commitments have fallen by 63 per cent compared with the same period last year, making this the sharpest decline amongst all wheat classes. White wheat and durum wheat, on the other hand, were the categories that increased their total commitments compared with last year.

The price competitiveness of US wheat is also affecting the pace of exports. Particularly due to HRW production being affected by drought, the US is facing less competitive prices when compared with the high supply from major competitors such as Canada, Australia and Argentina.

Whilst total commitments to Mexico and the Philippines – the US’s two largest wheat markets – have fallen by 7 per cent, the outlook for key white wheat buyers such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan remains more stable compared to last year. In price-sensitive markets such as Indonesia and Nigeria, however, significant declines were recorded following a rise in sales during the 2025/26 season. It is assessed that high supply from Canada and Australia has played a role in the decline in US sales in markets such as Colombia and Vietnam.

On a global scale, wheat trade in the 2026/27 season is expected to fall by 6 per cent compared to the previous year’s record level. Whilst the impact of war-related logistical constraints on Black Sea transit routes is evident in Russia’s exports, the European Union is expected to offset part of the shortfall in shipments from Russia and other Black Sea sources. Canada is forecast to achieve record exports, whilst Australia is expected to feature among the leading exporters in the new season, driven by high production and rising exports.

In the US, the forecast for the 2026/27 season’s average farm-gate wheat price has also been revised upwards by 20 cents per bushel to $6.40. The average price reported by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service in July 2026 stood at $6.06. In the USDA Economic Research Service’s 14 September forecast, based on futures data, the seasonal average price was projected at $7.16.

The next update to the US wheat production forecast is expected to be published on 30 September in the Annual Summary of Small Grains report. Furthermore, changes have been made to selected 10-digit HS codes relating to US pasta imports, effective from July 2026. The new codes aim to distinguish certified organic pasta imports from non-organic products.