Egypt and Brazil’s Influence on the Global Soybean Trade is Growing

According to the AMIS Report, the upward revision to the production forecast for Argentina was largely offset by the expected lower harvest in India due to adverse weather conditions. Consequently, the global production forecast remained largely unchanged compared with the previous month.

The report noted that the usage forecast for the 2026/27 season had been revised downwards to a limited extent. It was stated that the expected decline in soya bean crushing activities in India and Ukraine offset the increase in consumption in Egypt.

The global trade forecast for the 2026/27 season (October/September) was revised slightly upwards in line with expectations of stronger import demand from Egypt and increased export potential from Brazil. It was reported that end-of-season stocks showed a limited increase, maintaining a starting level close to record highs, as the build-up of stocks in Argentina more than offset the decline in Canada.

Planting in the Northern Hemisphere is generally progressing well

According to the AMIS Report, soya bean sowing in the Northern Hemisphere is generally proceeding under favourable conditions.

In the US, crop development is reported to be progressing well, with emergence and flowering stages in good condition, and the area sown has increased compared to last year. In Canada, it was stated that, despite a slow start, sowing operations have reached the completion stage under favourable conditions and that the area under cultivation has increased compared to last year.

Whilst it was noted that sowing activities in China are continuing under favourable conditions, it was reported that, in Ukraine, overall production conditions remain positive despite ongoing dry soil conditions in the eastern and western regions and the continuing conflict. In India, it was reported that sowing had only just begun under mixed conditions due to the slow progress of the South-West Monsoon and dry soil conditions.

The report also noted that the Indonesian government announced on 9 June that it had prepared a support programme to mitigate the effects of the depreciation of the local currency on soya bean imports. It was stated that the programme plans to subsidise 250,000 tonnes of soya beans, with a budget of approximately 500 billion Indonesian rupiah (29 million US dollars) earmarked for this purpose. It was reported that the details of the support programme would be finalised following consultations between the Ministry of Food Affairs and representatives from the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Finance and the business community.

In an assessment of international prices, it was noted that average soya bean export values had fallen in June and that the IGC GOI Sub-Index had dropped by 2 per cent compared with the previous month. Whilst it was noted that weaker prices in the US and Argentina had contributed to this decline, it was also stated that the fall in energy and vegetable oil prices, linked to the easing of tensions in the Middle East, had also pushed prices down.

It was reported that favourable weather conditions for developing crops in the US Midwest were putting pressure on the market, whilst limited buying interest in old-crop stocks was also exerting a downward pressure on prices. In Brazil, it was reported that benchmark FOB prices at the port of Paranaguá remained flat, as premiums—which had strengthened due to tight supply resulting from strong international demand and limited sales by producers—offset the fall in Chicago futures prices.