The IGC has raised its global cereal production forecast for 2026/27 to 2,427 million tonnes

As the Northern Hemisphere harvest enters its final stages, the outlook for maize and barley has improved, whilst closing stocks have been revised upwards to 619 million tonnes

In its report dated 15 October 2026, the International Grains Council (IGC) raised its forecast for global total cereal (wheat and coarse grains) production for the 2026/27 season by 7 million tonnes compared with the previous month, bringing it to 2,427 million tonnes. It was noted that the revision was primarily due to an upward revision of the maize forecast, whilst the outlook for barley also improved.

Cereals: Production is falling, stocks are shrinking

Whilst carry-over stocks were also revised upwards, as the consumption forecast was increased by only 2 million tonnes, the majority of the additional supply was reflected in end-of-season stocks. End-of-season stocks rose to 619 million tonnes, an increase of 11 million tonnes compared with September. Meanwhile, the trade forecast was reduced by 1 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes, due to a further decline in wheat production.

Global total cereal production is expected to fall by 68 million tonnes in 2026/27 compared with the previous year. Of this decline, 40 million tonnes is attributable to maize and 25 million tonnes to wheat. Barley production, however, is set to increase by 4 million tonnes. Consumption is forecast to reach a new record of 2,446 million tonnes, driven by a slight increase. The rise in food and industrial use largely offsets the decline in feed use. Despite this month’s increase, end-of-season stocks are forecast to fall by 19 million tonnes year-on-year. Global trade (July/June) is expected to decline by 17 million tonnes to 450 million tonnes. Whilst a fall of 15 million tonnes is forecast for wheat and 7 million tonnes for barley, a 6 million-tonne increase is expected in maize trade.

According to the IGC, total soya bean stocks for the 2026/27 season rose to approximately 74 million tonnes, a slight increase on a monthly basis. However, within this total, stocks held by major exporters are expected to fall sharply. The forecast for global import demand has been revised down slightly to 190 million tonnes; this figure remains at an all-time high.

Global soya production is forecast to reach a peak, rising by 2 per cent, driven primarily by a record harvest expected in the US and potentially high yields in South America. Demand for soya derivatives is expected to continue to support consumption, whilst total carryover stocks are forecast to contract. Cautious expectations regarding abundant and attractively priced surpluses in key producing countries, coupled with strong buying interest from Asia, could drive trade up by 2 per cent year-on-year to a new record.

Supply and demand forecasts for the 2025/26 rice season have remained largely unchanged on a monthly basis. A limited trade decline of 0.5 million tonnes was recorded, stemming from a downward revision to the Philippines’ import forecast. Global production is projected to remain stable on a monthly basis in 2026/27, whilst falling by 11 million tonnes on an annual basis.

Production is expected to contract for the first time in over a decade, falling by 2 per cent to 536 million tonnes; 6 million tonnes of this decline is attributable to India. Whilst rising food demand in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia is expected to support a 1 per cent increase in consumption, total stocks are forecast to fall for the first time in four years; however, stocks will remain at historically comfortable levels. Supported by potentially stronger demand from African buyers, trade is expected to reach a record level of 61 million tonnes in 2027.

Whilst global grain and oilseed export markets saw a softer trend last month, rice prices held up more firmly. The IGC Grain and Oilseed Index (GOI) fell by 4 per cent overall.